Monday, March 26, 2007

Fantastically Final Four!

The past week of college basketball was gut wrenching. Even though there aren't any mid-major "Davids" left in the field, we get to witness four Goliaths demolish each other. Based on their performances in this year's tournament, here's a prediction as to what will happen this Saturday and Monday nights.

Florida- The Gators had the easiest run to the final four which isn't a good thing. After seeing them barely defeat Vanderbilt, Oregon, and Butler, I've got a few reasons as to why they won't win it all.
  1. Oregon did a great job of shutting down Noah and Horford, but forgot to defend the 3-point shot and nobody shoots it better than Lee Humphrey. I'm not trying to take a shot at the Ducks, but defensively the Bruins, Buckeyes, and Hoyas are light years ahead of them. Florida is an extremely balanced team and I expect them to feed the ball down low to Horford and Noah against the Bruins, but Taurean Green is their motor and after watching Darren Collison shut down Sherron Collins I don't know whether or not they'll have the offensive firepower to overcome the Bruins.
  2. Besides their first game in the tournament, Florida has started every game very slow and then made their run in the second half. Against a team like UCLA or Ohio St., the Gators can't do that. They need to have the same intensity for 40 minutes or they'll be packing their bags. UCLA will focus their defense on the Gator's inside game and hope they don't shoot lights out from the 3 point line.
  3. I don't see this as that big of a distraction, but Billy Donovan's name has been coming up lately as a possible replacement to Tubby Smith at Kentucky. The chances are good that he will in fact leave after this season and go to his current teams conference rival. Noah, Horford, Brewer and possibly Green are headed to the NBA and Florida probably won't be headed to a Final Four for a while. Why not go to Kentucky and lead them back to the promise land? He'd make a LOT more money and have a fan base that revolves their lives around college basketball. It's one of the best jobs in sports and he'd be stupid to turn it down. Recruiting would be a lot easier at Kentucky and he'd probably end up winning a couple more national championships there.
  4. Billy Donovan is from Long Island
UCLA- I didn't expect the Bruins to beat Kansas. In fact, based on their poor offensive outing against Indiana and then Pittsburgh, I expected the Jayhawks to blow them outta the watah. They were extremely impressive defensively and showed that defense might in fact be what it takes to win championships (hopefully the Phoenix Suns figure this out in a couple of months). I like them to continue their tough play, overcome their weak front court mismatch, and dominate the pace and tempo of the game with Arron Affalo and Darren Collison.

Georgetown- This team is the best left in the field. From top to bottom, their starting lineup has 5 guys who can score in crunch time and make plays. I'd give a slight edge to Wallace, Summers, Hibbert, Sapp, and J. Green over Florida as the best starting five in the country. You could say that UNC choked in the elite 8, but I say Georgetown took it from them. Everyone on that team stays so cool under pressure, especially Jeff Green who is the reason I like them to win it all. Offensively he's more of a complete player than Arron Affalo. He can play inside or face up who ever is guarding him. His vision is tremendous and seems to always make the smartest pass at the perfect moment. Defensively, as good as Corey Brewer is on the perimeter, if I could pick one player in the country to shut down an opponents top threat, it'd be Jeff Green. He clogs passing lanes better than anyone in the country and is extremely tough to take off the dribble. Ohio St. doesn't have anyone who can stop him and nobody at his position to create a mismatch offensively. He's still my pick for final four MVP.

Ohio St.- I don't care what anyone says, Texas A&M would've beaten the Buckeyes. As we all know, they were handily robbed by the refs, Acie Law missed a freakin' layup with less than a minute to play, and everybody wearing an Aggie jersey was petrified to grab an offensive rebound in the closing moments. With that being said, Ohio St. is a very good team. They have a lethal mixture of freshmen talent and senior leadership. Mike Conley Jr. is the best point guard left in the tournament and is the one player on that team that the Hoyas will need to stop if they want to win. If Conley can kick his game into that extra gear and penetrate the Hoyas 2-3 zone, It could be a long day. Once he does that, he's got options: kick it out to Lewis, Cook, or Butler for a wide open 3 pointer, feed the ball down low to Oden for an easy deuce, or get to the basket and draw a foul.

Whether or not you would've preferred to see Virginia Commonwealth and Winthrop in the final four or like things the way they've played out...if your a fan of basketball, you'll be glued to your television at 6:07 PM this Saturday.

I like UCLA and Georgetown advancing with Georgetown cutting down the nets on Monday night.

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