-Former University of Vermont Head Basketball Coach and current ESPN College Basketball analyst Tom Brennan
Not only is that the quote of the year so far, but it pretty much sums up how impressive this young phenom actually is. Once drafted, Greg Oden will shoulder the burden of bringing the NBA into another "big man" golden age. Oden is absolutely dominating teams in the low post with left handed baby hooks and thunderous dunks whenever he's in close enough proximity to the basket. He fights off double and triple teams regularly all the while being a new kid on campus. On the defensive end, he's legitimately scaring guards who would normally drive to the basket. Greg is leading his team in scoring, rebounding, and most impressively, blocked shots (3.6 a game). However Oden is far from perfect...he gets into foul trouble too easily (see Florida) and isn't as aggressive as he needs to be flashing for the ball (see Wisconsin). An obvious reason for this could be the fact that he had surgery on his right wrist (he's right handed) in the offseason and has been playing with a cast. Another would be the fact that Ohio State doesn't run their offense through him. Right now the team revolves around it's guard play. They like to penetrate and kick out for wide open outside shots. Oden's been more of a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball, but don't worry, he'll be plenty offensively active as the season nears March. He's shooting his free throws left handed (61%) and most of his jump hooks are southpaw as well. GM's haven't salivated over a big man headed to the draft since Tim Duncan, and he's a future hall of famer. Not only does he play like a grisled veteran, but he also looks like one, literally scaring older players and having a "mature" look to go with a fundamental game. Stuart Scott said it best, "How do you beat a 43 year old freshman".
With all of that being said...any other year he goes number 1, but in 2007 Greg Oden is not a lock.
For those who witnessed the triple overtime thriller earlier this month between Texas and Oklahoma State, you all got to see something special. That something special goes by the name of Kevin Durant. He's listed at 6'9'' but has a ridiculous 7'5" wingspan. Some say he's the next Kevin Garnett. Given the fact that Durant can stroke the three ball just as good as any player in college basketball, I'd say he has the potential to be even better. His various array of moves near the basket go light years beyond the word impressive. As I mentioned before, in that triple OT game, Durant took Texas on his back and nearly willed his team to a win (they lost on a Mario Boggan 3 pointer which has to be one of the luckiest shots he's ever hit).
As a Boston Celtic fan, I get the feeling that landing either Oden or Durant in next year's draft would be like: a) Winning a real lottery and getting 100 million dollars or b) Being Tom Brady for 24 hours. It doesn't matter which one gets selected, I'm plenty happy with either.
Oden and Durant aren't the only two big name players who might make the jump into the league. Defending National Champion Florida could lose a lethal junior trio of talent in Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Corey Brewer. At 6'11'' and the face of their championship winning team, Noah looks to be like the most sought after of the three by NBA General Managers, but if it were up to me, I'd take Brewer. He's the best perimeter defender in all of Division-I basketball and is the glue that holds that team together. He continues to improve each season and could develop into a Shane Battier type player only with more athletic ability (a la Josh Howard)
(Side Note- After watching the Rocket-Spurs game last Wednesday, I got the feeling like I was witnessing a torch being passed from Bruce Bowen to Shane Battier...only Battier plays by the rules. He's perfected spreading the defense for T-Mac and knocking down key 3 pointers from the corner. They both accept responsibility for guarding the opposing teams top scorer and know their roles. That could be an interesting sub plot if these two teams meet in the postseason.)
Some other traditional college basketball powerhouses like Kansas and UNC will probably send some exceptional underclassmen to the next level. Two guys in particular might make the jump, but I don't see them ever developing into all-star caliber players unless they stay in school.
My first player is one of the most physically gifted athletes UNC has seen in some time. Brandon Wright is the second leading scorer on his extremely talented Tar Heel squad and has posted double digits in scoring in every contest except last week at Georgia Tech (9 points). When I think about Wright I can't help but think of LSU's Tyrus Thomas. They both can jump out of the gym...block floaters in the lane and dunk at will, but they don't have a mid range jump shot or a real explosive first step to create their own opportunities. GM's in the NBA see their upside and think they can make an impact but players like this need to stay in school. Their decision to take the money isn't a good one. If Tyrus Thomas stayed at LSU instead of taking his chances at being a number 1 pick, the Tigers would be an absolutely dominating force in the SEC. The front court of Thomas and Glen Davis would be the greatest LSU has had since Shaq and Stanley Roberts, they would be too much for almost every team in the country to handle, including Florida. Instead, Thomas is stuck on the Chicago Bulls bench starting in none but two games so far this season.
I can guarantee if Brandon Wright follows in the shoes of Tyrus Thomas, he'll be stuck in the exact same situation. But hey, at least he'll be a millionaire.
The other player I'm afraid will leave college basketball is Kansas forward Julian Wright. He's a sky scraping dunk machine, but he doesn't showcase a jump shot and since he's got outstanding athletic ability, will be drafted a lot higher than he should. He's too inconsistent at the college level to be a first round draft pick right now.
A player like Julian Wright can be compared to a Luden's cough drop. He's a high flying, exciting player who can attract fans, but he isn't fundamentally sound in other aspects of the game, (especially defensively) and he doesn't have an ability to take over a game and lead his team to victory. When you eat a Luden's, the label says cough drop and it tastes like candy, but it's never actually stopped someone from coughing. Henceforth from here on out, a player who is able to tease coaches, general managers, and fans at being more than what he really is will be referred to as a luden.
So is it Greg Oden (the next Tim Duncan), Kevin Durant (The next KG), Florida's upperclassmen trio, or the raw talent from Kansas and UNC? I think it's easy to say that Oden and Durant have distanced themselves from the rest of the pack, but one thing is for sure...with all the talent headed to the NBA in this years draft, each lottery team should get their own next big thing.
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